Crypto

November 2024

Bitcoin

Price action continues to make higher highs and higher lows. As long as support holds, we should continue looking up. Having said that, we are slowly approaching the next fib at a higher degree (137K). Fib levels are not black and white, it doesn't mean we'll touch them. Rather, they work like "magnets". Bringing price action close to them. Sometimes price action reach them, sometimes price come close to touch them. Bigger picture remains the same.

Long Term: No change.

BTCUSD 2 Weeks: www.tradingview.com/x/TzDVYkaP/

Short Term: There are 2 counts at the moment:

Blue count (Primary): It suggest BTC has completed minute wave 4 as a wider flat and it's on its way higher. Because price action is making all time highs, assuming there is a "resistance level" is not objective. Resistance will form when price action encounters more sellers than buyers at a specific price level. Until that happens, anything in between is possible. This doesn't mean you should buy at any level, please consider how far price action is from support and calculate your risk accordingly. It will take a break of U$D 84K to switch the probabilities for the red count that suggest a higher minute wave 3 and minute wave 4 (this is less probable at this moment). The higher price action goes, the higher support level will be.

Red count (Alternate #1): It suggest BTC is completing minute wave 3. At the moment, support for this count is U$D 69K but this can go higher in the next days.

Tactics: I took some profits for my most aggressive tranches. I will patiently wait for the next pullback to redeploy some of those gains.

BTCUSD 3 Days: www.tradingview.com/x/gzPIqrxe/

Ethereum

ETH seems more like a diagonal and price action is lagging BTC, question is: will it catch up? So far the long term picture has not changed.

Long term: There are no changes in the long term count.

Short term: There are 2 counts at the moment:

Blue count (Primary): It suggest ETH has completed minor wave 4 as a wider flat and it's on its way higher. Support for this count is U$D 2300. A break of U$D 2300 switches the probabilities for the red count that suggest a deeper correction.

Red count (Alternate #1): It suggest ETH has completed 3 waves up since June 2022. Support for this count is U$D 1200. This is a low probability count at the moment.

Tactics: I have not touched my logs on ETH, patiently waiting to see what price action gives me.

ETHUSD 2 Weeks: www.tradingview.com/x/A3giE2wi/

ETHUSD 3 Days: www.tradingview.com/x/xO7M2prt/

ETHBTC: www.tradingview.com/x/bmKPAwPd/

Finally, a word of advise: Don't buy the FOMO but the fear, price action always allows for a new entry.

July 2024

Bitcoin

Price action has broken the previous low and forced a wider flat. As mentioned on the last report, this is quite normal during bull markets. Bigger picture has not changed.

Long Term: No change.

BTCUSD 2 Weeks: www.tradingview.com/x/WxpzBR13/

Short Term: There are 2 counts at the moment:

Blue count (Primary): It suggest BTC is completing minute wave 4 as a wider flat. The next support level is U$D 48725. We will see how low price action wants to go but a typical wave 4 support is the confluence between the 100% fib and the 38.2% retracement between waves 3 and 2 (that would be the range between U$D 50K and 48K). It will take a break of U$D 42K to switch the probabilities for the red count that suggest a deeper correction (this is less probable at this moment).

Red count (Alternate #1): It suggest BTC has completed 3 waves up since November 2023. Support for this count is U$D 21K.

Tactics: I have added some below 55K, yet I kept it small.

BTCUSD 3 Days: www.tradingview.com/x/aIgyB8AD/

Ethereum

Similar than BTC, price action is allowing for a wider flat correction. Yet this does not change the long term picture.

Long term: There are no changes in the long term count.

Short term: There are 2 counts at the moment:

Blue count (Primary): It suggest ETH is completing minor wave 4 as a wider flat. Support for this count is U$D 2000. A break of U$D 2000 switches the probabilities for the red count that suggest a deeper correction.

Red count (Alternate #1): It suggest ETH has completed 3 waves up since June 2022. Support for this count is U$D 1200. This is a low probability count at the moment.

Tactics: Similar than BTC, I've added some during the last pullback, but kept it small.

ETHUSD 2 Weeks: www.tradingview.com/x/DaCoAisi/

ETHUSD 3 Days: www.tradingview.com/x/Ytx4VZ8q/

ETHBTC: www.tradingview.com/x/YNx8S5Sg/

Finally, a word of advise: These are the moments I personally buy some, yet keeping it small is the way to manage risk.

May 2024

Bitcoin

Nothing has changed since the last update, price continues to put higher highs and higher lows. Since the last higher high in March price has consolidated (23% correction). This is quite normal during bull markets.

Long Term: No change.

BTCUSD 2 Weeks: www.tradingview.com/x/vonfDR3y/

Short Term: There are 2 counts at the moment:

Blue count (Primary): It suggest BTC has completed minute wave 4 and is looking for the next leg up. Breaking the last low can turn minute wave 4 into a wider flat, yet price needs to break U$D 56K first. A break of U$D 42K switches the probabilities for the red count that suggest a deeper correction (this is less probable at this moment).

Red count (Alternate #1): It suggest BTC has completed 3 waves up since November 2023. Support for this count is U$D 21K.

Tactics: I have added some below 60K, yet I kept it small.

BTCUSD 3 Days: www.tradingview.com/x/dzUMET9q/

Ethereum

Nothing has changed since the last report. ETHBTC chart continues to be supportive (so far) that ETH might outperform BTC after the next consolidation. As long as U$D 1200 holds as support, price action should be on it's way to U$D 7K and above.

Long term: There are no changes in the long term count.

Short term: No changes from previous update. There are 2 counts at the moment:

Blue count (Primary): It suggest ETH has completed minor wave 4 and it should be on its way to complete minor wave 5. Similar than BTC, breaking the last low can turn minor wave 4 into a wider flat, yet price needs to break U$D 2800 first. Support for this count is U$D 2000. A break of U$D 2000 switches the probabilities for the red count that suggest a deeper correction.

Red count (Alternate #1): It suggest ETH has completed 3 waves up since June 2022. Support for this count is U$D 1200. This is a low probability count at the moment.

Tactics: Similar than BTC, I've added some during the last pullback, but kept it small.

ETHUSD 2 Weeks: www.tradingview.com/x/GLsXPeCa/

ETHUSD 3 Days: www.tradingview.com/x/BkZxbbmE/

ETHBTC: www.tradingview.com/x/qqzcdoEv/

Finally, a word of advise: I can only hope that, during the time of fear and uncertainty, you have bought some and you won't wait until euphoria is all over the news to buy (think of April/May 2021), as this will be the time I'll be selling.

March 2024

Bitcoin

Price action is quite strong and making higher highs. Different technical indicators are starting to show signs of topping, specially in the 3 day chart, this doesn't mean price cannot continue in an uptrend, yet caution is required if one would like to buy at this level. Even in bull cycles there are 20/30% drops. I will personally wait for those opportunities to add.

Long Term: No change.

BTCUSD 2 Weeks: www.tradingview.com/x/fPQzUg9V/

Short Term: There are 2 counts at the moment:

Blue count (Primary): It suggest BTC is completing minute wave 3 and looking for some consolidation next in wave 4. Support for this count is U$D 41K. A break of U$D 41K switches the probabilities for the red count that suggest a deeper correction. If price action puts a higher high then support will change (will be higher) but this is the top we have as of now.

Red count (Alternate #1): It suggest BTC is about to complete 3 waves up since November 2023. Support for this count is U$D 21K. Same as with the blue count, if price action puts a higher high then support will change (will be higher) but this is the top we have as of now.

Tactics: I will personally wait to add more.

BTCUSD 3 Days: www.tradingview.com/x/uaKrENNq/

Ethereum

ETHBTC chart is supportive (so far) that ETH might outperform BTC after the next consolidation. As long as U$D 1200 holds as support, price action should be on it's way to U$D 7K and above.

Long term: There are no changes in the long term count.

Short term: No changes from previous update. There are 2 counts at the moment:

Blue count (Primary): It suggest ETH is completing wave 3 and looking for some consolidation next. Support for this count is U$D 2000. A break of U$D 2000 switches the probabilities for the red count that suggest a deeper correction. If price action puts a higher high then support will change (will be higher) but this is the top we have as of now.

Red count (Alternate #1): It suggest ETH is about to complete a 3 waves move since June 2022. Support for this count is U$D 1200. Same as with the blue count, if price action puts a higher high then support will change (will be higher) but this is the top we have as of now.

Tactics: Similar than BTC, I will wait for a pullback to add. Patience is the name of the game.

ETHUSD 2 Weeks: www.tradingview.com/x/pAe5pIdO/

ETHUSD 3 Days: www.tradingview.com/x/Krhs9nsr/

ETHBTC: www.tradingview.com/x/YsJTWhAu/

Finally, a word of advise: Every cycle (without exception) most people look for whatever coin that will give more yield than BTC, without calculating risk appropriately. Say you'd like to buy a particular coin during the next run, first check how that coin compares to BTC (XXXUSD/BTCUSD chart). If you see an uptrend, buy some, but keep it small. If you see a downtrend, then keep looking or stick to BTC and ETH.

December 2023

Bitcoin

It's been a long time since the last update (more than a year). Long term has not changed much, short term a bit, but for most people there is no need to trade every move and just play the weekly chart.

Since November 2022 BTC has put higher highs and higher lows. As long as 17K holds as support price action should be on it's way to 100K and above.

Long Term: Wave's degrees have been adjusted.

BTCUSD 2 Weeks: https://www.tradingview.com/x/izkFkXAx/

Short Term: There are 2 counts at the moment:

Blue count (Primary): It suggest BTC is forming a lower degree diagonal in minuette wave (a) and looking for some consolidation next. Support for this count is U$D 28K. A break of U$D 28K switches the probabilities for the red count that suggest a deeper correction. If price action puts a higher high then support will change (will be higher) but this is the top we have as of now.

Red count (Alternate #1): It suggest BTC has put a top in 3 waves making a bigger diagonal (minute wave a) and should consolidate next in minute wave b. Support for this count is U$D 19K. Same as with the blue count, if price action puts a higher high then support will change (will be higher) but this is the top we have as of now.

Tactics: If you have no position, the next drop might present an opportunity to get in. Be nimble with your position size and just buy what can let you sleep at night shall it drop 40%. Use the stop levels to strategically get in at different levels.

BTCUSD 3 Days: www.tradingview.com/x/SR93Qu1O/

Ethereum

ETH looks a bit different than BTC. It bottomed earlier than BTC and since then it has moved similarly (diagonal structure). As long as U$D 880 holds as support, price action should be on it's way to U$D 7K and above.

Long term: There are no changes in the long term count.

Short term: No change from previous update. There are 2 counts at the moment:

Blue count (Primary): It suggest ETH is forming a lower degree diagonal in minuette wave (a) and looking for some consolidation next. Support for this count is U$D 1680. A break of U$D 1680 switches the probabilities for the red count that suggest a deeper correction. If price action puts a higher high then support will change (will be higher) but this is the top we have as of now.

Red count (Alternate #1): It suggest ETH has put a top in 3 waves making a bigger diagonal (minor wave a) and should consolidate next in minor wave b. Support for this count is U$D 1K. Same as with the blue count, if price action puts a higher high then support will change (will be higher) but this is the top we have as of now.

Tactics: Similar than BTC, if you have no position at all, the next pullback might present an opportunity. Once again, patience patience patience.

ETHUSD 2 Weeks: www.tradingview.com/x/aL2lXfhq/

ETHUSD 3 Days: www.tradingview.com/x/OGBESCoI/

ETHBTC: www.tradingview.com/x/EY0j36tw/

Finally, a word of advise: Be nimble with your position size and do not play the FOMO game. Rather, wait for pullbacks to add into a moving train, but always keep in mind your position size, leaving cash for big drops.

August 2022

Bitcoin

Big picture remains the same: There are no major changes since the previous post, yet I would like to address "tactics" since a bottom is not yet confirmed. From June 18th we have seen a bounce that, as mentioned in previous updates, looked like a diagonal from the lows. The question now is if support for that diagonal is going to hold or not.

Long Term: No change in the long term view.

BTCUSD RSI Weekly: www.tradingview.com/x/MkWOwSCg/

BTCUSD Weekly: www.tradingview.com/x/bGFhhybP/

BTCUSD Bearish Alternate: www.tradingview.com/x/rzn1cbKN/

Short Term: No change. There are 2 counts at the moment:

Blue count (Primary): It suggest BTC has bottomed and we are starting Minor Wave 1 of the Intermediate Wave (5). As mentioned in the previous update, this count looks like a diagonal at best. Diagonals tend to retrace deeper than impulses, so breaching the 78.6% retracement doesn't immediately invalidate the count. Support for this count is U$D 17592. A break of U$D 17592 immediately invalidates this count and makes the Green count primary.

Green count (Alternate #1): It suggest we will see a lower low for Intermediate Wave (4). Support for this count is U$D 15800. Please do note, if price breaks U$D 15800 impulsively, the BTCUSD Bearish Alternate would gain in probability. This doesn't mean we will drop immediately to U$D 4800 or U$D 2100. If this scenario plays out (for now low probability) then it means we have put a top at a higher degree count and we are now in a multi year correction. The good news of this count is, it projects BTC price close to 1 million. But let's take one step at a time.

Tactics: The closest prices goes to U$D 17592, the lower the risk for an entry if we use U$D 17592 as a stop. Yet you have to be nimble and leave cash aside if either price provides a lower low or bounces and give us another retracement and entry level. This is the game of patience. You need to place your buys at levels close to your stop and wait to see how price reacts to those levels.

BTCUSD Daily: www.tradingview.com/x/xmgpTCLB/

Ethereum

In comparison, ETH is holding higher than BTC. Yet support has to hold in order for this move to have legs.

Long term: No change from previous update.

Short term: No change from previous update. There are 2 counts at the moment:

Blue count (Primary): It suggests ETH has bottomed in Wave (4) and price is now working on Minor Wave 1 of the Intermediate Wave (5). As mentioned in the previous update, the move from the low looks like a diagonal at best. Support for this count is U$D 880.

Green count (Alternate #1): It suggest we will see a lower low for Intermediate Wave (4). Support for this count is $623. It's important to mention than, if prices breaks U$D 623 impulsively, then the Red count on the ETHUSD Weekly chart will gain in probabilities. But let's take one step at a time.

Tactics: Similar than BTC, the closest price goes to U$D 880, the lower the risk for an entry if we use U$D 880 as a stop. Yet we need to be nimble as there is no conformation of a bottom yet. Once again, patience patience patience.

ETHUSD RSI Weekly: www.tradingview.com/x/b00OiYwF/

ETHUSD Weekly: www.tradingview.com/x/R9AQjHUm/

ETHUSD Daily: www.tradingview.com/x/BIS8pp0Y/

ETHBTC: www.tradingview.com/x/gPFMhOaH/

Finally, a word of advise: The path to being profitable is to buy in small amounts and take bigger profits. Scaling in with big tranches will lead to bigger loses. Considering how much cryptos appreciate, you will soon realize you do not need to invest a lot to make a difference, yet you need to develop enough patience and discipline. It's a marathon.

July 2022

Bitcoin

No change since last post, technicals remain weak, yet around this RSI level on the weekly BTC has seen a bounce (from price history). Take a look at the BTCUSD RSI Weekly chart. Aside from the very oversold RSI level on the weekly, take a look at the previous drops on BTC, this last drop was about 75%.

Long Term: No change in the long term view, yet we need to address the question: What is the next support level if U$D 15800 fails to hold? This is my bearish view on BTC if that support level breaks impulsively: BTCUSD Bearish Alternate.

BTCUSD RSI Weekly: www.tradingview.com/x/1VeRSpr5/

BTCUSD Weekly: www.tradingview.com/x/mwZyt1VB/

BTCUSD Bearish Alternate: www.tradingview.com/x/9Vic0KpZ/

Short Term: Counts have changed and the triangle was invalidated.

Blue count (Primary): It suggest BTC has bottomed and we are starting Minor Wave 1 of the Intermediate Wave (5). The issue with this count is the move from the low looks a 3 waves move so it makes a diagonal at best. It doesn't look impulsive from the low, so we cannot ignore another lower low. Support for this count is U$D 17592.

Green count (Alternate #1): It suggest we will see a lower low for Intermediate Wave (4). Support for this count is U$D 15800.

Tactics: If your timeframe is long term, this is not a bad level to buy some, yet you have to keep those buys small as the correction might not be over.

BTCUSD Daily: www.tradingview.com/x/pvK0oUaO/

Ethereum

ETH broke support (U$D 2080) and with that it started a major correction. Similar than with BTC, technicals on the weekly remain very weak on ETH. Please take a look at the ETHUSD RSI Weekly Chart.

Long term: Similar than with BTC, we need to address the elephant in the room: What is the next support level if U$D 623 fails to hold? The next support levels below U$D 623 are U$D 367 and U$D 181. Those are shown on the red count on the ETHUSD Weekly Chart.

Short term: The previous green count is now the blue count. There are 2 counts at the moment:

Blue count (Primary): It suggests ETH has bottomed in Wave (4) and price is now working on Minor Wave 1 of the Intermediate Wave (5). Similar than BTC, the issue with this count is the move from the low looks a 3 waves move so it makes a diagonal at best. Support for this count is U$D 880.

Green count (Alternate #1): It suggest we will see a lower low for Intermediate Wave (4). Support for this count is U$D 623.

Tactics: Similar than with BTC, if your timeframe is long term, you might want to buy some at this level, yet keep those buys tiny.

ETHUSD RSI Weekly: www.tradingview.com/x/7dOsxUvk/

ETHUSD Weekly: www.tradingview.com/x/QCWdJ57P/

ETHUSD Daily: www.tradingview.com/x/w1W3L667/

ETHBTC: www.tradingview.com/x/mZZvvdVN/

Finally, a word of advise: This last correction has shown to many that, no matter how much potential a specific coin might have, you have to train yourself to trim some into strength. Because a correction might be around the corner.

May 2022

Bitcoin

Bitcoin broke support at U$D 34300, meaning the probabilities have shifted to the previous green count which now has become the primary count (in blue). Technicals continue to show weakness in the weekly chart, with the addition of a top Bresserts: BTCUSD Bresserts Weekly chart.

Long Term: No change.

BTCUSD Bresserts Weekly: www.tradingview.com/x/yIUtcYOe/

BTCUSD RSI Weekly: www.tradingview.com/x/CzivfvIC/

BTCUSD Weekly: www.tradingview.com/x/2kBWHTHu/

Short Term: As price has broken support, counts have changed. There are 2 counts I'm following at the moment:

Blue count (Primary): It suggest we will retest support for the Intermediate Wave (4). Support for this count is U$D 15800. Above U$D 63K this count invalidates.

Red count (Alternate #1): It suggest a triangle for Intermediate Wave (4). Support for this count is U$D 29K. Below U$D 29K this count invalidates.

Tactics: As mentioned in previous updates, I will not be trading much until the correction resolves in the bigger time frames charts (specially the weekly chart).

BTCUSD Daily: www.tradingview.com/x/trdv7DSE/

Ethereum

In comparison, ETH is holding support (U$D 2080) better than Bitcoin. However, please do note that technicals on the weekly remain very weak on ETH too. Please take a look at the ETHUSD Bresserts Weekly chart.

No change on the counts since last post. There are 3 counts at the moment:

Blue count (Primary): It suggests ETH has bottomed in Wave (4) and price is now working on Minor Wave 2. Support for Minor Wave 2 is U$D 2080. If price finds support above U$D 2080 then targets for Intermediate Wave (5) are above 11K.

Red count (Alternate #1): It suggest a diagonal instead of an impulse. Same as with the blue count, below U$D 2080 it opens the door to other alternative counts. If price finds support above U$D 2080 then targets for Wave C are above 8K.

Green count (Alternate #2): It suggest we will retest support for the Intermediate Wave (4). Support for this count is U$D 620. Above U$D 4500 this count invalidates.

Tactics: As mentioned before, I will not be trading much until the correction resolves in the bigger time frames charts (specially the weekly chart).

ETHUSD RSI Weekly: www.tradingview.com/x/6DF1OXxM/

ETHUSD Weekly: www.tradingview.com/x/SAKF5qYi/

ETHUSD Daily: www.tradingview.com/x/POj6JTCd/

ETHBTC: www.tradingview.com/x/hSq8SQ9v/

Finally, a word of advise: Buying into weakness is not a bad idea as long as those buys are tiny. You should always preserve capital for when a major correction shows up or when price reverse strongly to play a MOMO trade.

April 2022

Bitcoin

Not a lot has changed since January 2022, and that is the reason there have been no updates to our analysis. Price action has no strength and currently RSI is at 44.9 on the weekly and pointing downwards: BTCUSD RSI Weekly chart. If price does not reverse here soon it would increase the probabilities to test the 29K low from June 2021.

Long Term: No change.

BTCUSD RSI Weekly: www.tradingview.com/x/CoOvso8Y/

BTCUSD Weekly: www.tradingview.com/x/4D2e0O4R/

Short Term: No change since last post. There are 3 counts I'm following at the moment:

Blue count (Primary): It suggests BTC has bottomed in Wave (4) and price is now working on Minor Wave 2. Support for Minor Wave 2 is U$D 34300. Below that level it opens the door to other alternative counts. If price finds support above U$D 34300 then targets for Wave (5) are above 100K.

Red count (Alternate #1): Instead of an impulse, it suggest an ending diagonal. Support for this count is the same than for the blue count. Same as with the blue count, below U$D 34300 it opens the door to other alternative counts. If price finds support above U$D 34300 then targets for Wave C are above 90K.

Green count (Alternate #2): It suggest we will retest support for the Intermediate Wave (4). Support for this count is U$D 15800. Above 63K this count invalidates.

Tactics: I will not be trading much until the correction resolves in the bigger time frames charts (specially the weekly chart).

BTCUSD Daily: www.tradingview.com/x/VJzoj62o/

Ethereum

Unfortunately, ETH has not been the exception and price action shows some similarities with BTC. Check at the weekly RSI: ETHUSD Weekly chart. If price action does not reverse here soon we might see lower levels.

No change on the counts since last post. There are 3 counts at the moment:

Green count (Alternate #2): It suggest we will retest support for the Intermediate Wave (4). Support for this count is U$D 620. Above U$D 4500 this count invalidates.

Tactics: I will not be trading much until the correction resolves in the bigger time frames charts (specially the weekly chart).

ETHUSD Weekly: www.tradingview.com/x/P1O9wAc3/

ETHUSD Daily: www.tradingview.com/x/IWwsHY8R/

ETHBTC: www.tradingview.com/x/K577vATK/

Finally, a word of advise: Mind your position size. Make sure you are comfortable with your position size. Personally I always have cash on the sidelines ready for buying opportunities. If you are constantly all in you will miss that capital for buying when nobody buys.

January 2022

Bitcoin

Everyone was expecting 100K by the end of 2021. Everyone was very excited. We saw it all on social media. This is why I personally do not rely on timing, as this is something the market should decide as a whole. Now, back to our analysis.

Before anything, please take a look at the BTCUSD RSI Weekly chart. RSI on the weekly is trending down and, historically, every time RSI crossed 40 down on the weekly we had a drop. As I said in the past, price make indicators, indicators do not make price. So while the TA view on the weekly is very bearish, price must confirm that.

Back to price action, BTC has been on a correction since October/November of 2021. Question is: how deep? The current structure should hold 34K. Below that level it opens the door for a retest of the June 2021 low.

Long Term: Adjusted the last correction and changed the counts a bit.

BTCUSD RSI Weekly: www.tradingview.com/x/dUEyTfzP/

BTCUSD Weekly: www.tradingview.com/x/X3JqnlxE/

Short Term: There are 3 counts I'm following at the moment:

Green count (Alternate #2): It suggest we will retest support for the Intermediate Wave (4). Support for this count is U$D 15800. Above 63K this count invalidates.

Tactics: I will not be trading much until the correction resolves in the bigger time frames charts (specially the weekly chart).

BTCUSD Daily: www.tradingview.com/x/8jFlqeZk/

Ethereum

Similar than BTC, please take a look at ETHUSD Weekly chart and check the RSI level. While this is not a nice picture price must confirm this bearish view on the weekly.

Back to price action, ETH has been on a correction since November 2021. Current structure should hold U$D 2080. Below U$D 2080 then it opens the door to retest Intermediate Wave (4).

There are 3 counts at the moment:

Green count (Alternate #2): It suggest we will retest support for the Intermediate Wave (4). Support for this count is U$D 620. Above U$D 4500 this count invalidates.

Tactics: I will not be trading much until the correction resolves in the bigger time frames charts (specially the weekly chart).

ETHUSD Weekly: www.tradingview.com/x/BtWwZ44n/

ETHUSD Daily: www.tradingview.com/x/TdiTZzOi/

ETHBTC: www.tradingview.com/x/Zi5nF0Ez/

Finally, a word of advise: Day trading is not for everyone. And most people will do way better just trading the weekly chart. The problem with the low time frame charts is not only you will need to invest more time every day managing your positions, also you will be more emotionally invested on them, and that leads to more mistakes. Zooming out is better suited for most people, specially if trading is not your first source of income.

October 2021

Bitcoin

Price continues to put higher highs and higher lows, as long as this pattern is at play we should see continuation. Same as in previous reports: as long as we hold U$D 32900, we are on our way to 100K or above. A break of U$D 32900 means we might test the next support level at 24K.

Long Term: No change.

BTCUSD TA Weekly: www.tradingview.com/x/8uWBt5k8/

BTCUSD Weekly: www.tradingview.com/x/LbXku1Gn/

Short Term: There are 2 counts I'm following at the moment:

Blue count (Primary): It suggests BTC has bottomed in Wave (4) and price is now working on Minute Wave 1 of Minor Wave 3. Once price start to correct we would be able to measure the levels for that correction. Targets for Wave (5) are above 100K.

Red count (Alternate): The alternate Intermediate Wave (4) was removed for now as it can only be considered if we break 32K. The new red count suggests we could put a wider flat for Minor Wave 2. Above 63K this count invalidates.

Tactics: As I have enough tranches I will wait for the next meaningful pullback in order to add more to a position.

BTCUSD Daily: www.tradingview.com/x/U3JqdCKO/

BTCUSD Hourly: www.tradingview.com/x/l7padBui/

Ethereum

ETH has also put higher highs and higher lows since the last major bottom in July. As long as this trend continues, we should see more upside. Yet price can consolidate once again before continuing to the upside. To keep it simple: as long as we hold U$D 2000 we are heading higher. A break of U$D 2000 means we might be on our way to U$D 1000.

There are 3 counts at the moment:

Blue count (Primary): It suggests ETH has bottomed in Wave (4) and price is now working on Minute Wave 1 of Minor Wave 3. Once price start to correct we would be able to measure the levels for that correction. Targets for Intermediate Wave (5) are above 11K.

Red count (Alternate #1): The alternate Intermediate Wave (4) was removed for now as it can only be considered if we break 2K. The new red count suggests we could put a wider flat for Minor Wave 2. Above 5K this count invalidates.

Green count (Alternate #2): It suggest a more bullish count with higher targets. This counts requires a deep pullback and a strong price reaction right after.

Tactics: As mentioned in the previous report, I bought some as price entered my buying zone. If price comes back to my buying zone I will be adding more ETH with a stop at 2K.

ETHUSD Weekly: www.tradingview.com/x/IOsWedL0/

ETHUSD Daily: www.tradingview.com/x/LLvpyTgM/

ETHUSD Hourly: www.tradingview.com/x/zaHHalWS/

ETHBTC: www.tradingview.com/x/oxI5XtR6/

Finally, a word of advise: On every bull run market participants expect that the outperforming assets of the previous bull run will provide the same gains as in the previous run. While this might hold true for some assets, for most alt coins this is not true (specially if they have finished their 3rd Wave). Rotation is a better strategy than expecting the same amount of upside after an asset has fulfill most of its pattern to its count. Try to look for assets that have not taken off compared to other assets.

September 2021

Bitcoin

After making a very nice run since July 20th price has started to retrace. Looking at the daily chart we see technicals are supportive of this correction. To keep it in simple terms: as long as we hold U$D 32900, we are on our way to 100K or above. A break of U$D 32900 means we might test the next support level at 24K.

Long Term: No change.

BTCUSD TA Weekly: www.tradingview.com/x/GmaTc2KC/

BTCUSD Weekly: www.tradingview.com/x/6DddeMK9/

Short Term: There are 2 counts I'm following at the moment:

Blue count (Primary): It suggests BTC has bottomed in Wave (4) and price is now working on Minor Wave 2. Standard targets for Minor Wave 2 are between U$D 41047 and U$D 32925. Below U$D 32900 will be the first indication we might be dealing with a bigger correction (one degree higher). Targets for Wave (5) are above 100K.

Red count (Alternate): It suggest BTC is on a larger correction for Intermediate Wave (4). Targets for Wave (4) would be between U$D 33320 and U$D 15800.

Tactics: I'm going to add some BTC using the standard targets with a stop at 32K.

BTCUSD Daily: www.tradingview.com/x/Z0nk9Zyq/

BTCUSD Hourly: www.tradingview.com/x/Yc18fUNw/

Ethereum

A bit different than BTC, ETH has a different structure since the last major low in July. To keep it simple: as long as we hold U$D 2000 we are heading higher. A break of U$D 2000 means we might be on our way to U$D 1000.

There are 3 counts at the moment:

Blue count (Primary): It suggests ETH has bottomed in Wave (4) and price is now working on Minor Wave 2. Standard targets for Minor Wave 2 are between U$D 2901 and U$D 2050. Below UD$ 2000 will be the first indication we might be dealing with a bigger correction (one degree higher). Targets for Intermediate Wave (5) are above 11K.

Red count (Alternate #1): It suggests we are still on Wave (4). Targets for Wave (4) would be between U$D 1800 and U$D 623.

Green count (Alternate #2): It suggest a more bullish count with higher targets. This counts requires a deep pullback and a strong price reaction right after.

Tactics: I will be adding ETH if price gets into my buying zone.

ETHUSD Weekly: www.tradingview.com/x/5StPJ2lr/

ETHUSD Daily: www.tradingview.com/x/7wPzOGB7/

ETHUSD Hourly: www.tradingview.com/x/lraEy2yw/

ETHBTC: www.tradingview.com/x/vRRkvp7T/

Finally, a word of advise: Train yourself to buy assets when they come to your buying zone instead of buying what trends on Twitter.

August 2021

Bitcoin

Since July 20th, price has made higher highs and higher lows. While we cannot rule out if there will be more downside ahead, we can trade the current structure with a stop at the last major low. If we look at the BTCUSD daily TA chart, we'll see that technicals are starting to turn. To keep it in simple terms: as long as we hold U$D 29296, we are on our way to 100K or above. A break of U$D 29296 means we'll test the next support level at 24K.

Long Term: No change.

BTCUSD TA Daily: www.tradingview.com/x/kROBekgs/

BTCUSD TA Weekly: www.tradingview.com/x/vBcgbBT4/

BTCUSD Weekly: www.tradingview.com/x/ZNddE8Kq/

Short Term: There are 2 counts I'm following at the moment:

Blue count (Primary): This count assumes we have finished the correction and we are working on Minor Wave 1 of (5). Below U$D 25K the blue count becomes a diagonal. Targets for Wave (5) are above 100K.

Red count (Alternate): It suggest BTC is on a larger correction for Intermediate Wave (4) and we should see a B wave next before continuing the correction. Targets for Wave (4) would be between U$D 33320 and U$D15800.

Tactics: I've bought some BTC on May 19th and June 22nd, yet I have enough armo if price wants to take us lower. Additionally, if price provides a entry based on the hourly chart I will take a trade as well.

BTCUSD Daily: www.tradingview.com/x/vth5DaGr/

BTCUSD Hourly: www.tradingview.com/x/beRclUxw/

Ethereum

Similar to BTC, and to keep it simple: as long as we hold U$D 1706 we are heading higher. A break of U$D 1706 means we are going to test U$D 1000. This structure can be traded with a stop at the last major low.

There are 3 counts at the moment:

Blue count (Primary): It suggests ETH has bottomed in Wave (4). Targets for Intermediate Wave (5) are above 11K.

Red count (Alternate #1): It suggests we are still on Wave (4) and we should see a B wave next before testing U$D 1000.

Green count (Alternate #2): It suggest a more bullish count with higher targets. This counts requires a deep pullback and a strong price reaction right after.

Tactics: I've bought some ETH on May 23rd and June 22nd, yet I have enough armo if price wants to take us lower. I will also be trading this structure on the daily chart.

ETHUSD Weekly: www.tradingview.com/x/X3WxsJTl/

ETHUSD Hourly: www.tradingview.com/x/CvqUsR5y/

ETHBTC: www.tradingview.com/x/EPoVSkpr/

Finally, a word of advise: The fact that I will be trading this structure doesn't mean I'll trade it aggressively or using all my capital on it. Risk management is key in order to be profitable in the long run. So make sure you trade using tranches you can stomach.

July 2021

Bitcoin

Price has made a new low on June 22nd and the structure since that low is not very encouraging. This means we might have a diagonal at best, yet the structure suggest we have more downside ahead of us. As we can see in the BTCUSD hourly chart, we need to take 36624 in order to invalidate the current downside potential. The alternative scenario (in red) is a leading diagonal. In short, we need to let price tip its hand in order to tell us what is coming next. So patience here is key. As mentioned in a previous update, if we break 25K it means we have a diagonal instead of an impulse. But let's go one step at a time.

Long Term: I've changed the degree of the wave count.

BTCUSD TA Weekly: www.tradingview.com/x/3Sftzg2z/

BTCUSD Weekly: www.tradingview.com/x/lr8PgCsC/

Short Term: There are 2 counts I'm following at the moment:

Blue count (Primary): Due to the deep of this pullback, I have to consider the scenario we are in Intermediate Wave 4 rather than in Minor Wave 4. This has been updated on the daily chart. This count suggests BTC is about to bottom (unless we form a leading diagonal as shown on the hourly chart) in Intermediate Wave 4. Once the correction is over we should be heading to 100K or above on Wave (5). Below U$D 25K the blue count becomes a diagonal.

Red count (Alternate): It suggest BTC is on a larger correction for Intermediate Wave 4 and we should see a B wave next before continuing the correction. Targets for Wave (4) would be between U$D 33320 and U$D15800.

Tactics: I've bought some BTC on May 19th and June 22nd, yet I have enough armo if price wants to take us lower.

BTCUSD Daily: www.tradingview.com/x/heYVx70W/

BTCUSD Hourly: www.tradingview.com/x/6PJWgj9j/

Ethereum

Price action suggests the downside is not over yet. As shown in the ETHUSD hourly chart, the only bullish alternative (in red) is a leading diagonal. Price needs to take 2644 in order to invalidate the current downside potential.

There are 2 counts at the moment:

Blue count (Primary): It suggests ETH has topped in Wave (3) and we are now in Wave (4). Targets for Intermediate Wave (4) are between USD 1800 and U$D 623. This count invalidates below U$D 623.

Red count (Alternate): It suggests we have a leading diagonal. For that we need to have a C wave and then see how deep the next retracement is.

Tactics: I've bought some ETH on May 23rd and June 22nd, yet I have enough armo if price wants to take us lower.

ETHUSD Weekly: www.tradingview.com/x/ZsDOzY15/

ETHUSD Hourly: www.tradingview.com/x/TFP19Zm8/

ETHBTC: www.tradingview.com/x/q7Px6BHl/

Finally, a word of advise: If you are running out of patience, please let me remind you that the main purpose of corrections is to bore market participants to death in order to let go their current positions. Instead, you should be planning what to do next, as once price finds a bottom, the reversal can be quite strong. Patience is the most important skill one has to develop if you are planning to trade markets.

May 2021

Bitcoin

Price took a detour from our target at 70/85K. While it's possible all the correction is over and we are about to resume the leg up to 75K, it's important to remain objective and consider the more bearish scenario. This doesn't mean the bull market is over, we first need to break 25K to invalidate the more bullish count. We came close, yet that support has not been broken so far. If we break 25K that would mean we are in a diagonal rather than an impulse. Diagonals tend to be more unreliable to trade than impulses as they correct deeper than impulsive moves.

Long Term: I've just changed the wave degree to be in line with the daily chart and I've added the red count.

BTCUSD TA Weekly: www.tradingview.com/x/sPunhw0N/

BTCUSD Weekly: www.tradingview.com/x/L7r9R2oh/

Short Term: There are 2 counts I'm following at the moment:

Blue count (Primary): It suggests BTC has bottomed (or we are about to bottom if we drop once again) in Minor Wave 4 and we are now in Minor Wave 5 of (3). Targets for Wave (3) are above U$D 70K (Ideally 75K but we can extend higher). Below U$D 25K the blue count becomes a diagonal.

Red count (Alternate): It suggest BTC has topped in (3). Targets for Wave (4) would be between U$D 33320 and U$D15800.

Tactics: I've bought some BTC on May 19th, yet I have enough armo if price wants to take us lower.

BTCUSD: www.tradingview.com/x/xvM8U7kN/

Ethereum

While BTC might have bottomed, I have my doubts regarding ETH as it has extended way more in it's 3rd wave than BTC. So we might see BTC catching up in the coming weeks. The ETHBTC chart is supportive of this perspective.

There are 2 counts at the moment:

Blue count (Primary): It suggests ETH has topped in Wave (3) and we are now in Wave (4). Targets are between USD 1800 and U$D 623. This count invalidates below U$D 623.

Red count (Alternate): It suggests we have bottomed (or we are about to) in Minor Wave 4, heading now to Minor Wave 5. Targets are above U$D 6K.

Tactics: I will start adding ETH if it drops below U$D 1800.

ETHUSD: www.tradingview.com/x/Ks5sGvyh/

ETHBTC: www.tradingview.com/x/lJhK1Jsd/

March 2021

Bitcoin

We are slowly approaching a major level. That would be between 70K and 85K. Most specifically 75K. I'm not suggesting to sell your holdings here. We are still in a Wave 3 and the trend is strong. So if we correct after reaching 75K, I would see that as an opportunity to buy more.

Long Term: No change from previous months.

BTCUSD TA Weekly: www.tradingview.com/x/RB36e9ZV/

BTCUSD Monthly: www.tradingview.com/x/xZazCmFb/

Short Term: There is 1 count I'm following at the moment:

Blue count (Primary): It suggests BTC is still in Minor Wave 3. Targets for Wave 3 are above U$D 70K (Ideally 75K). Below U$D 15K the blue count is invalidated.

Tactics: I will be buying in every time it corrects 30% or more. Every pullback is a buying opportunity now.

BTCUSD: www.tradingview.com/x/HTPiW3Q9/

Ethereum

Same as BTC, we are slowly approaching major resistance levels. For ETH that would be above 2500.

There are 2 counts at the moment:

Blue count (Primary): It suggests ETH is already in Wave 3 of (3) targeting USD 2500 or above. This count invalidated below U$D 129.

Red count (Alternate): It suggests a larger Primary wave ① and ②. If that is the case our targets ahead are much higher. We'll be able to determine the probabilities of this count depending on the price structure in the coming weeks.

Tactics: I want to increase my ETH position for the long term so I will be adding in on every 30% pullback (or deeper pullback).

ETHUSD: www.tradingview.com/x/rNNZpeR8/

When to buy BTC or ETH?

You do not need to look at hourly or daily charts to start a position either on BTC or ETH. Just follow the weekly chart and add some every time it has a sizable pullback (30% or deeper). On any bull markets we always see 30% pullbacks, it's normal as old capital takes profit and new capital comes into play.

February 2021

Bitcoin

No change on the macro view. We are still in a Wave 3 and the trend is strong. As we have said since October 2020, we continue to make higher highs and higher lows. This means we should NOT try to short this market but buy pullbacks instead.

Long Term: No change from previous months.

BTCUSD TA Weekly: www.tradingview.com/x/nvAVo1Le/

BTCUSD Monthly: www.tradingview.com/x/hFnFgKDd/

Short Term: There are 2 counts I'm following at the moment:

Blue count (Primary): It suggests BTC is still in Minor Wave 3. Targets for Wave 3 are above U$D 70K. Below U$D 15K the blue count is invalidated.

Red count: (Alternate) : It suggests we have finished Minor Wave 3 and we are in Minor Wave 4. If that is the case the targets for Minor Wave 4 are between U$D 38341 and 29578. Above U$D 60K the red count invalidates.

Finally, I wanted to point out the RSI support areas on the weekly chart: www.tradingview.com/x/g7SxYLs2/

As you can see in the chart, RSI needs to "reset" after crossing 70 on the weekly chart. This is perfectly normal during a bull market. Ideally we want to see RSI drop close to 60 or 50 to buy again. But any turn on the weekly RSI is for sure an indication that the next run has begun.

Tactics: I will be buying in every time it corrects 30% or more. Every pullback is a buying opportunity now.

BTCUSD: www.tradingview.com/x/DXT3Bcmm/

Ethereum

No changes since last month.

There are 2 counts at the moment:

Blue count (Primary): It suggests ETH is already in Wave 3 of (3) targeting USD 3500 or above. This count invalidated below U$D 129.

Tactics: I want to increase my ETH position for the long term so I will be adding in on every 30% pullback (or deeper pullback).

ETHUSD: www.tradingview.com/x/FemleyKB/

When to buy BTC or ETH?

January 2021

Bitcoin

Structure suggest we are in a Wave 3 and the trend is strong. As we have said since October, we continue to make higher highs and higher lows. This means we should NOT try to short this market but buy pullbacks instead.

Long Term: No change from previous months except the possibility to see U$S 2000 is quite low at this point.

BTCUSD TA Weekly: www.tradingview.com/x/hyDSXvaA/

BTCUSD Monthly: www.tradingview.com/x/PZa1oEPS/

Short Term: There are 2 counts I'm following at the moment:

Blue count (Primary): It suggests BTC has started the next bull run. Targets for Wave 3 are above U$D 70K. Below U$D 6300 the blue count is invalidated.

Red count: (Alternate) : It suggests we are still in Wave (4). After B wave tops we should drop between U$D 12946 and 8231. Above U$D 43K the red count invalidates. We are very close to invalidate this count.

Tactics: I will be buying in every time it corrects 30% or more. Every pullback is a buying opportunity now.

BTCUSD: www.tradingview.com/x/pTfBsBRY/

Ethereum

There is a change in the count. The primary count suggest we are in an impulse for primary Wave ⑤.

There are 2 counts at the moment:

Blue count (Primary): It suggests ETH is already in Wave 3 of (3) targeting USD 3500 or above. This count invalidated below U$D 129.

Tactics: As mentioned above, I want to increase my ETH position for the long term so I will be adding in on every 30% pullback (or deeper pullback).

ETHUSD: www.tradingview.com/x/ebCZAsC8/

When to buy BTC or ETH?

December 2020

Bitcoin

I would like to try something different this time regarding when to buy or when to scale in. I'll explain my view of the market and what I will do in the coming months.

Long Term: My long term goal is to accumulate as much Bitcoin as possible. If there is something clear to me is that Bitcoin is here to stay. We see everyday more an more interest from institutions, hedge funds and money managers. While the peak in 2017 was mainly driven by individual demand, the next run will be driven by institutional demand. As you can imagine institutions have larger pockets than individuals.

As we have discussed in November, we continue to be in a very strong bull market making higher highs and higher lows. The higher price goes the lower the probabilities to see a correction to U$D 2000 or below. Aside from the traditional EW count, it's important to also look at the long term trend from a pure Technical Analysis perspective.

BTCUSD TA Weekly: www.tradingview.com/x/cqngzA0E/

BTCUSD Monthly: www.tradingview.com/x/2ALm9c3i/

Short Term: There are 2 counts I'm following at the moment:

Blue count (Primary): It suggests BTC has started the next bull run. Targets for Wave 3 are above U$D 70K. Below U$D 6300 the blue count is invalidated.

Red count: (Alternate) : It suggests we are still in Wave (4). After B wave tops we should drop between U$D 8231 and 3090. Above U$D 43K the red count invalidates.

Tactics: I will be buying in every time it corrects 30% or more but I will also leave capital in case we go deeper for a correction.

BTCUSD: www.tradingview.com/x/zvHf37e1/

Ethereum

There is a change in the count. The primary count suggest we are in an impulse for primary Wave ⑤.

The probabilities are in favor the correction since December 2017 has finished. There are 2 counts at the moment:

Blue count (Primary): It suggests ETH is already in Wave 3 of (3) targeting USD 3500 or above. This count invalidated below U$D 129.

Red count (Alternate): It suggests 1 has completed or it's about to complete. If that is the case we should see a pullback before resuming the bull trend. Above USD 1300 this count is invalidated.

Tactics: As mentioned above, I want to increase my ETH position for the long term so I will be adding in on every 30% pullback (or deeper pullback).

ETHUSD: www.tradingview.com/x/lREAyxLO/

When to buy BTC or ETH?

November 2020

Bitcoin

Long Term: We seem to be in a very strong bull market making higher highs and higher lows. While we might correct in the short term to U$D 2000 or below, long term Bitcoin has a very bullish setup with a target for Wave ③ above U$D 900K that only invalidates below U$D 734.

BTCUSD Monthly: www.tradingview.com/x/BUwGG9UX/

Short Term: The triangle has invalidated when RSI crossed the trendline on the weekly chart. There are 2 counts I'm following at the moment:

Blue count (Primary): It suggests BTC has started the next bull run. Targets for Wave 3 are above U$D 70K. Below U$D 6300 the blue count is invalidated.

Red count: (Alternate) : It suggests we are still in Wave (4). After B wave tops we should drop between U$D 8231 and 3090. Above U$D 43K the red count invalidates.

Tactics: Buy small tranches on any pullbacks.

BTCUSD: www.tradingview.com/x/BEQHBdfC/

Ethereum (No change)

The probabilities are in favor the correction since December 2017 hasn't finished. There are 2 counts at the moment:

Blue count (Primary): It suggests ETH will start a C wave targeting between U$D 46 and 24 (it might go lower depending on how it corrects).

Red count (Alternate): It suggests Wave II has finished on 2018 and we should now correct between U$D 202 and U$D 122. Below U$D 102 the red count is invalidated.

For both counts: If the top is not in, we might have a final rally to U$D 500-700 before starting to correct. If you don't have a position yet this is a time to watch the count until it resolves.

ETHUSD: www.tradingview.com/x/XKfnoohT/

October 2020

Bitcoin

BTCUSD Monthly: www.tradingview.com/x/haP8ZjhL/

Short Term: We seem to be in a triangle correction since December 2017. There are 3 counts I'm following at the moment:

Blue count (Primary): It suggests BTC will finish wave E of the triangle around U$D 4800. Below U$D 4488 the blue count is invalidated.

Green count (Alternate #1): It suggests BTC will consolidate on Wave C of the triangle around U$D 4800. Below U$D 4488 the green count is invalidated.

Red count: (Alternate #2): It suggests BTC will drop to U$D 2000 (or even lower).

For all counts: If the top is not in, we might have a final rally to U$D 16-20k before starting to correct. If you don't have a position yet this is a time to watch the count until it resolves.

BTCUSD: https://www.tradingview.com/x/3BH2jj0k/

Ethereum

The probabilities are in favor the correction since December 2017 hasn't finished. There are 2 counts at the moment:

Blue count (Primary): It suggests ETH will start a C wave targeting between U$D 46 and 24 (it might go lower depending on how it corrects).

Red count (Alternate): It suggests Wave II has finished on 2018 and we should now correct between U$D 202 and U$D 122. Below U$D 102 the red count is invalidated.

For both counts: If the top is not in, we might have a final rally to U$D 500-700 before starting to correct. If you don't have a position yet this is a time to watch the count until it resolves.

ETHUSD: https://www.tradingview.com/x/a4Ih1Pzo/